Friday, May 12, 2006

Captain spoils Amma's party

My assessment
Vijayakanth ate up her votes although neither won except for the one seat that they grabbed out of PMK at Virudhachalam.
Add to it, the Sankaracharya episode which antagonised many Bhramin voters.
Vaiko's defection from DPA at the last moment did not go well in the rural areas.
Amma's anti coversion policy made no significant change as Christians always voted for DMK. So did the muslims except for the votes to IUML that was an ADMK ally.

But Vijayakanth's voters in almost every constituency made the difference between victory and defeat for AMMA.

On the otherside, Karunanidhi won purely because of the coalition.
He tactfully sacrificed absolute majority to share seats with the other members of the DPA only to ensure he stays CM. He even let go the hold he had on the centre, where he always threatened to withdraw support unless his demands were met. Now it is a stalemate as his govt. depends largely on the relationship with INC, PMK and CPI-M. In a way it works out well for both the centre and state as there is a check and balance.

I am sure that everyone would agree that the centre and state relationship will become much better now than it was during J's reign. How long this will last needs to be seen.

After Karunanidhi
Inspite of Yoga and idlis, the fact remains that Karunanidhi is not getting any younger. There will be a race for leadership among the younger generation while the likes of Balu, Anbazhagan, Arcot Veerasamy and Duraimurugan are likely to stick behind Stalin who to his credit has worked for the party as much as anybody else. However the new kid around the block, riding high on his brother's media weight, Mr. Dayanidi Moron is likely to garner support from the lesser loyals. Whether family prevails over politics is yet to be seen.

The post-Kamaraj Congress is just beginning to see some faint light after four decades of indifference from the Tamil public. Vaiko and Vijayakanth will stand to gain too. If Amma can keep the other three mentioned above in bay, she can rule TN for the rest of her life. Amma's celebrations are merely postponed till next elections if she plays her cards well.

15 comments:

ashok said...

rajesh..u r spot on.
however i differ on ur view abt the successor to Kalaingar. Stalin is the clear candidate and he wont be rivalled by anyone.He had been patient so far and kalaingar had worked meticulously to make sure Stalin succedes him.Even this time, he has cleverly brought in 20 new faces as ministers who are his loyalists. And the rest of the senior party bigwigs like Balu, PTR, Anbazhagan, Arcot Veerasamy and Duraimurugan are expected to take his side anyday as u say.
Dayanidhi Moron does not have any ambitions in state politics and will carry on his role in National politics like his father. He is the only hope to keep the clout of the MK family alive in national level.
So as far as the DMK partymen are concerned its Stalin after Kalaingar. But it will take a long time for the general Tamil public to accept him...

Rajesh said...

Ashok,
Have you decided to stay back in India? I don't think the new generation politicians value loyalty like you do. If at all anything, they will use it to get the best bargain for changing colours. However by 2012 Vijayakanth will be a dominant force.

Afterall, to become popular in politics, you need to loose three consecutive elections if you are not a celluloid star and Captain's me are "one down, two more to go"

vishy said...

I was partly surprised that DMDK won only one seat.. and the reason for that was Captains fame... yet I expected DMDK to win atleast a couple of other seats.... any way looking at this.. I only wonder what the situation would be if our superstar actually started a party...

ofcourse the superstar might win it big.. but will he be able to get an absolute majority and form a govt without any coalition is the question??

Anonymous said...

Thalaivar vandha paakalaam.

Anonymous said...

ellam fraud pasanga, para thevidiya payan vandhona koila non brahmins um pooja pannalam idhu pannalam nu arika uttutu pinnadi gajanava gaali pannuvan, captain oru typical soothra payan avanoda peru endha ooru voters list la irruku nu kooda therila avanukku...
idhula rajinikanth veriya, vandha interestinga irrukum, pesathurku topic kedaikum...

Usha said...

captain has impressed most of us thru his turnover! kalakittar thalaivar!

Anonymous said...

If Captain becomes CM, he will go to a hospital with a dead body and ask the doctor to perform the operation and finally get some money for the poor wife. We can be witness to all his reel life heroics in real life. Like hitting a guy standing in front of him by stepping on to two or three walls before landing a blow. Buguey. Bughuey. Iye. Iye. Ah Ah.

Deepa said...

"Inspite of yoga and idli...." - lol

Anonymous said...

There was an article during the campaign that read "Yoga and idlis keep Karunanidhi going".

Anusha Parthasarathy said...

Your assessment is absolutely right Rajesh!!!

காசி (Kasi) said...

அதென்ன அம்மா கேப்டனால் தோல்வின்னு எழுதி இருக்கே? அம்மான்னா என்ன உன் அப்பனுக்கு பொண்டாட்டியா???

உங்க அம்மா, இப்ப சரத்குமாரை வெச்சிருப்பதா கேள்வி. உனக்கு ஏதும் செய்தி வந்ததா???

Rajesh said...

Kasi,
Semma logic. Velakku pudichaamadhiri puttu puttu vekkara. 69 % podhumaa illa innum venumaa.

Deepa said...

Are you busy again? Why no new posts?

Ajay said...

seems he's 'patruthal ulla Ravanan'...

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