Friday, May 12, 2006

Captain spoils Amma's party

My assessment
Vijayakanth ate up her votes although neither won except for the one seat that they grabbed out of PMK at Virudhachalam.
Add to it, the Sankaracharya episode which antagonised many Bhramin voters.
Vaiko's defection from DPA at the last moment did not go well in the rural areas.
Amma's anti coversion policy made no significant change as Christians always voted for DMK. So did the muslims except for the votes to IUML that was an ADMK ally.

But Vijayakanth's voters in almost every constituency made the difference between victory and defeat for AMMA.

On the otherside, Karunanidhi won purely because of the coalition.
He tactfully sacrificed absolute majority to share seats with the other members of the DPA only to ensure he stays CM. He even let go the hold he had on the centre, where he always threatened to withdraw support unless his demands were met. Now it is a stalemate as his govt. depends largely on the relationship with INC, PMK and CPI-M. In a way it works out well for both the centre and state as there is a check and balance.

I am sure that everyone would agree that the centre and state relationship will become much better now than it was during J's reign. How long this will last needs to be seen.

After Karunanidhi
Inspite of Yoga and idlis, the fact remains that Karunanidhi is not getting any younger. There will be a race for leadership among the younger generation while the likes of Balu, Anbazhagan, Arcot Veerasamy and Duraimurugan are likely to stick behind Stalin who to his credit has worked for the party as much as anybody else. However the new kid around the block, riding high on his brother's media weight, Mr. Dayanidi Moron is likely to garner support from the lesser loyals. Whether family prevails over politics is yet to be seen.

The post-Kamaraj Congress is just beginning to see some faint light after four decades of indifference from the Tamil public. Vaiko and Vijayakanth will stand to gain too. If Amma can keep the other three mentioned above in bay, she can rule TN for the rest of her life. Amma's celebrations are merely postponed till next elections if she plays her cards well.